georesГеоресурсыGeoresources1608-50431608-5078Georesursy LLC10.18599/grs.2025.3.5geores-576Research ArticleГАЗОВЫЕ ГИДРАТЫGAS HYDRATESКриогенные газовые гидраты на арктических шельфах – особенности прогноза и ресурсные оценкиCryogenic gas hydrates on the Arctic shelves: forecast features and resource assessmentsСмирновЮ. Ю.SmirnovYu. Yu.

Юрий Юрьевич Смирнов – ведущий инженер; аспирант

190121, Санкт-Петербург, наб. реки Мойки, д. 124

Yury Yu. Smirnov – Lead Engineer

124 Moika River Embankment, Saint Petersburg, 190121

y.smirnov@vniio.ruМатвееваТ. В.MatveevaT. V.

Татьяна Валерьевна Матвеева – кандидат геол.-минерал. наук, ученый секретарь

190121, Санкт-Петербург, наб. реки Мойки, д. 124

Tatiana V. Matveeva – Cand. Sci. (Geology and Mineralogy), Academic Secretary

124 Moika River Embankment, Saint Petersburg, 190121

t.matveeva@vniio.ruЧазовА. О.ChazovA. O.

Артем Олегович Чазов – ведущий инженер

190121, Санкт-Петербург, наб. реки Мойки, д. 124

Artem O. Chazov – Lead Engineer

124 Moika River Embankment, Saint Petersburg, 190121

a.chazov@vniio.ruВсероссийский научно-исследовательский институт геологии и минеральных ресурсов Мирового океана имени академика И. С. Грамберга; Российский государственный гидрометеорологический университетРоссияAll-Russia Research Institute for Geology and Mineral Resourses of the World Ocean; Russian State Hydrometeorological UniversityRussian FederationВсероссийский научно-исследовательский институт геологии и минеральных ресурсов Мирового океана имени академика И. С. ГрамбергаРоссияAll-Russia Research Institute for Geology and Mineral Resourses of the World OceanRussian Federation2025270920252736476Copyright © Смирнов Ю.Ю., Матвеева Т.В., Чазов А.О., 20252025Смирнов Ю.Ю., Матвеева Т.В., Чазов А.О.Smirnov Y.Y., Matveeva T.V., Chazov A.O.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.geors.ru/jour/article/view/576

Работа посвящена особенностям прогнозирования и количественной оценки ресурсов метана в субаквальных криогенных газовых гидратах на шельфе российской Арктики. Основу работы составляет численное моделирование субаквальной криолитозоны и температурного режима морских отложений. В ходе математического моделирования были построены равновесные кривые гидратообразования с переменной соленостью морской воды, позволившие определить пространственное положение границ зоны стабильности газовых гидратов (ЗСГГ) криогенного типа. В районах прогнозируемой ЗСГГ по данным МОВ ОГТ оконтурены потенциально гидратоносные скопления. Оценено количество метана в четырех прогнозируемых подмерзлотных газогидратных скоплениях на шельфе моря Лаптевых. В выявленных скоплениях может содержаться порядка 0,1 трлн м3 метана в форме гидрата. Согласно выполненным оценкам регионального масштаба, на шельфе российской Арктики может быть аккумулировано до 9,24 трлн м3 метана или около 0,3% от общемировых геологических запасов газа в форме газовых гидратов.

The study is dedicated to the features of forecasting and quantitative assessment of methane resources in subsea cryogenic gas hydrates on the Russian Arctic shelf. The work is based on numerical modeling of submarine permafrost and the thermal regime of marine sediments. As a result of the mathematical modeling, equilibrium curves of hydrate formation with variable seawater salinity were constructed. These curves facilitated the determination of the spatial boundaries of cryogenic gas hydrate stability zones. In regions with predicted cryogenic gas hydrate stability zones, potentially hydrate-bearing accumulations were delineated based on Common Depth Point (CDP) seismic data. The amount of methane in four forecasted sub-permafrost gas hydrate accumulations on the Laptev Sea shelf was estimated. The identified accumulations are projected to contain approximately 0.1 trillion cubic meters of methane in hydrate form. According to the regional-scale assessments, up to 9.24 trillion cubic meters of methane, or about 0.3% of the global gas-in-place assessments, may be accumulated on the Russian Arctic shelf.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.