From Covid “today” to low-carbon “tomorrow”: analysis of foreign forecasts for the development of world energy
https://doi.org/10.18599/grs.2021.3.7
Abstract
The article is devoted to the analysis of forecasts of the world energy development made recently (from September 2020 to May 2021) by the world’s leading analytical centers, taking into account “the new reality” – the coronavirus pandemic. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the development of the world economy and energy consumption and the estimates of its consequences on longterm global economic growth made in various forecasts and prognostic studies are considered. It is shown that the priority of most of the prognostic estimates of the world consumption of primary energy resources made by the world’s leading analytical centers in recent years is a sharp reduction in CO2 emissions by energy and stabilization of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in order to prevent negative climate changes on our planet. A conditional classification of scenarios for the prospective development of global energy is given, depending on the ideology that is embedded in them, an analysis of the fulfilled forecasts is given. It is concluded that Russian research structures need to develop their own similar forecasts.
About the Author
A. M. Mastepanov
Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (National Research University);
Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alexey M. Mastepanov – Dsc (Economics), Professor, Head of the Analytical Centre for Energy Policy and Security, Chief Researcher;
Professor Oil and Gas Research;
3, Gubkin st., Moscow, 119333
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Review
For citations:
Mastepanov A.M. From Covid “today” to low-carbon “tomorrow”: analysis of foreign forecasts for the development of world energy. Georesursy = Georesources. 2021;23(3):42-52. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18599/grs.2021.3.7
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