The article discusses the key risks of implementing a strategy for long-term socio-economic development of Russia with a low level of greenhouse gas emissions. In recent years, the climate agenda has been the most important driver of structural shifts in the world economy and is viewed by leading countries as a factor in intensifying economic growth and consolidating their technological leadership at the global level. In this context, Russia’s efforts to reduce its carbon footprint without direct import of low-carbon technologies and equipment from developed countries will run into non-recognition (of the carbon sink by Russian forests and carbonfree nature of nuclear and large hydro power plants) and increase in requirements for even more radical reduction in emissions. At the same time, Russia is already making a significant contribution to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. The article provides a list of measures that should underlie a balanced national climate policy. The strategy for the socio-economic development of Russia with a low level of greenhouse gas emissions should provide for a balance between solving the problems of preserving the population, improving the quality of its life, and ensuring dynamic and inclusive economic growth in the country. Russia’s potential announcement of commitments to unequivocally achieve carbon neutrality by mid-century carries serious risks to national interests. Instead, a more flexible language should be used to strive for carbon neutrality.
This article discusses a possible scenario of energy transition in Russia, taking into account the economic structure, presence of huge oil and gas infrastructure and unique natural resources. All this allows to consider global trends of energy and economic decarbonization not only as a challenge, but also as a new opportunity for the country. Considering developed oil and gas production, transportation, refining and petrochemical infrastructure, as well as the vast territory, forest, water and soil resources, our country has unique opportunities for carbon sequestration using both biological systems and the existing oil and gas infrastructure. It is proposed to use the existing oil and gas production facilities for hydrogen generation in the processes of hydrocarbon catalytic transformation inside the reservoir. It is suggested to create and use large-scale technologies for CO2 sequestration using existing oil and gas production infrastructure. Considering high potential of the Russian Federation for carbon sequestration by biological systems, a network of Russian carbon testing areas is being developed, including one at Kazan Federal University (KFU), – the “Carbon-Povolzhye” testing area. The creation of carbon farms based on the applications at such testing areas could become a high-demand high-tech business. A detailed description of the KFU carbon testing area and its planned objectives are given.
The processes of global energy transition are increasingly becoming one of the main driving forces of both the transformation of the existing market model and the technological foundations of the functioning of energy facilities. The reorientation of the world economy towards decarbonization threatens the stability of the functioning of many previously seemingly unshakable technological solutions and approaches in the field of system integration of the fuel and energy complex, which, in turn, stimulates the search for a new paradigm of its development.
The manifestations of transformation are observed at various levels of the economic hierarchy: inter-country, country and intra-country. The development of mechanisms for the response of Russian manufacturers to the realities of the energy transition requires testing at real facilities. According to the authors, Tatarstan can become an indicative region for the development of approaches to achieving carbon neutrality.
For a preventive forecast of the attainability of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) indicators, the authors propose a conceptual approach to assessing the development of decarbonization technologies, based on a combination of economic and mathematical methods, which allows us to develop an organizational and legal basis for the process, form and evaluate criteria for the effectiveness of innovations and the conditions for their implementation.
Decarbonization is one of the main trends in global development of the last decade. More than 120 countries have already announced plans to achieve net-zero emissions by the middle of the century. Among them are Russia’s largest trading partners, including the European Union, China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Kazakhstan, as well as the United States. These ambitions are supported by a tightening carbon regulation: carbon pricing has already been set up in 64 countries and regions. In the largest emissions trading system – the European one – carbon price has already exceeded 50 euros per ton of emissions.
Significant effort in decarbonization has been taken in many industries (e.g., civil aviation, maritime transport, oil and gas industry), companies (which set up carbon neutrality targets and introduce internal carbon pricing) and the financial sector. Standards for corporate information disclosure about emissions and strategiesfor their reduction, in particular CDP andTCFD, are being developed and adopted.At the same time, ways to put pressure on competitors who do not want to bear the costs associated with reducing greenhouse gas emissions are being developed. For example, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will be launched by the European Union in 2023. All these trends mean that products with low carbon footprint become not just a competitive advantage for a company, but also an inevitable condition for its presence on the international market. Companies with a high carbon footprint face less favorable conditions of borrowing, as well as trading barriers and growing pressure from customers both corporate and individual.
In this regard, the development of low-carbon economy in Russia is inevitable to minimize the costs associated with tightening regulation. It is becoming particularly relevant for export-oriented regions with large emissions, including the Republic of Tatarstan. In our opinion, the launch of a pilot project to regulate greenhouse gas emissions in this region is important not only for GHG reduction itself, but also for increasing competitiveness of Tatarstan companies on international markets and attracting investment from both Russian and foreign investors. In this paper, we explain the need to launch such a pilot and relying on the existing Russian and international experience on the one hand and taking into account the characteristics of Tatarstan’s economy on the other, we demonstrate a scheme by which such a project can be organized.
The country needs new, profitable «here and now» reserves that can slow the rate of oil production decline. In this regard, the subsoil manager urgently needs to take fundamental measures to raise investment in oil prospecting and to speed up the process. All hopes rest upon independent investors who have potential to accelerate and increase prospecting activity. In order to stimulate oil prospecting, the subsoil manager needs to take several steps towards independent investors.
The prospect of Russia’s economic development will be inextricably bound up with the country’s success in the implementation of global climate initiatives. The strategy for the development of the national economy with a low level of greenhouse gas emissions, which is currently being formed, implies the fullest use of the potential for carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems, including through the implementation of various forest-climatic projects.
The article shows that despite the world’s largest forest areas, the carbon-absorbing capacity of Russian forests cannot balance anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Using the examples of several regions of the Volga region and Siberia, the spatial dynamics of the forest carbon budget in the 2010s is considered. For the regions of Siberia rich in boreal forests, there is a significant disproportion between the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of forest resources and the absorbing capacity, which is explained by the ineffective forestry regime in the territory and the high intensity of forest disturbances. Taking into account the fact that building an effective system for combating forest fires and insect pests requires very voluminous and expensive measures, the effectiveness of which is difficult to assess, the above illustrations of the current situation lead to the idea that, in addition to using the potential for increasing carbon sequestration in traditional forest regions in the implementation of forest-climatic projects should pay attention to sparsely forested areas.
The article is devoted to the analysis of forecasts of the world energy development made recently (from September 2020 to May 2021) by the world’s leading analytical centers, taking into account “the new reality” – the coronavirus pandemic. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the development of the world economy and energy consumption and the estimates of its consequences on longterm global economic growth made in various forecasts and prognostic studies are considered. It is shown that the priority of most of the prognostic estimates of the world consumption of primary energy resources made by the world’s leading analytical centers in recent years is a sharp reduction in CO2 emissions by energy and stabilization of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in order to prevent negative climate changes on our planet. A conditional classification of scenarios for the prospective development of global energy is given, depending on the ideology that is embedded in them, an analysis of the fulfilled forecasts is given. It is concluded that Russian research structures need to develop their own similar forecasts.
The energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables is dominating the news in North America and other parts of the world. A decade ago, most people would have viewed global warming as an academic subject which did not impact themselves nor warrant serious concern. However, currently many parts of the world are experiencing record temperatures and related environmental impact such as the extensive forest fires being experienced in the western USA and Canada. Accordingly, governments worldwide recognize the need for future economic activity to be carbon-neutral or as is also termed carbon-zero. To achieve the goal of carbon-neutral economies by 2050 will be hugely challenging but economic opportunities will also arise in the major development of solar, wind and geothermal energy.
PROSPECTING, EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF OIL, GAS AND OIL AND GAS FIELDS
The geological section of Eastern and Western Siberia is a complex object for a seismic exploration. The reason for this is the extremely high variability of the upper part of the section lithology, rough terrain, and permafrost rocks. This paper delivers an alternative approach to predicting the velocity model of the upper part of the section. The approach based on the original method of restoring the elastic-velocity characteristics from the data of transient electromagnetic method (TEM) in the near field zone.
Research devoted to test the methodology of the shallow section velocity model calculation based on TEM data in a number of fields in Eastern and Western Siberia. Derived results aimed to improve the accuracy of the geological model building and the reliability of the hydrocarbon plays prediction.
Synthetic modeling and field data confirm the high level of the proposed methodology effectiveness. It was shown that for the Eastern Siberia settings, an improvement in the quality of processing of seismic data consists in a significant increase in the dynamics and coherence of seismic recordings. In Western Siberia, it is possible to take into account the velocity anomalies associated with the permafrost rocks and zones of transit from the onshore part of the survey area to the sea.
Determination of the current reservoir pressure in oil production wells selection zones is an urgent task of field development monitoring. The main method for its determination is hydrodynamic studies under unsteady conditions. At the same time, the process of restoring bottomhole pressure to the value of reservoir pressure often lasts a significant period of time, which leads to long downtime of the fund and significant shortfalls in oil production. In addition, it seems rather difficult to compare reservoir pressures with each other in the wells due to the different timing of the studies, since it is impossible to simultaneously stop the entire fund for measuring the reservoir pressure in the field. The article proposes a new method for determining the current reservoir pressure in the extraction zones, based on the construction of multidimensional mathematical models using the data of geological and technological development indicators. As the initial data, the values of reservoir pressure, determined during processing of the materials of hydrodynamic studies of wells, as well as a set of geological and technological indicators, probably affecting its value, were used (initial reservoir pressure for each well, the duration of its operation at the time of study, liquid rate, bottomhole pressure, the initial permeability and the current collector in the drainage area, GOR accumulated values oil, and liquid water, and skin factor). In the course of the research, several variants of statistical modeling were used, in the process of which the regularities of the reservoir pressure behavior during the development of reserves were established, individual for the object of development. The obtained models are characterized by a high degree of reliability and make it possible to determine the desired value with an error of no more than 1.0 MPa.
The article describes the results of lithological and petrophysical investigations that would be a base for characterization of reservoir rocks in Upper Cretaceous deposits. These investigations include thin sections description, SEM and NMR analysis. As found that three main factors have constrained final quality of reservoir rocks: 1) depositional settings favorable for coccoliths and chalk sedimentation; 2) late diagenesis changes – compaction and recrystallization degree; 3) fracture intensity.
Development of oil and gas deposits in fractured reservoirs entails certain risks due to peculiarities of geological structure. Classification and identification of fractures in reservoirs is of high-priority importance and makes it possible to assess the impact of both fractured systems and matrix blocks on field development parameters.
This article presents the results of statistical and qualitative analysis of the influence of fracture systems and fracture heterogeneity to classify reservoirs in crystalline basement granitoids using the example of the White Tiger (Bach Ho) and Dragon (Rong) fields located on the southern shelf of the South China Sea (Viet Nam). Field classification of fractured reservoirs is based on a well-marked difference in parameters between wells within a field, due to fracture heterogeneity. In order to solve the tasks set, construction and analysis of graphs of well performance parameters distribution (productivity, flow rates, accumulated indicators, etc.) as well as Lorenz curves were carried out. According to the results, all the objects under study are characterized by asymmetrical shape of distribution curves, which indicates a significant influence of fracturing.
Based on the calculated values of the fracture influence coefficient, it is found that fractured reservoirs in crystalline basement, as a first approximation, belong to type 2. This fact is inconsistent with the earlier works on crystalline basement, in which rocks are classified as reservoirs of type 1. Such contradiction is explained by the fact that the microfracture systems and the blocky low-permeability part exhibit matrix properties, but are not fully matrix. This part of the reservoir is proposed to be called a “pseudomatrix”. If macrocracks dominate in the section, the basement rocks are identified as type 1 fractured reservoirs, but if microfracture systems (“pseudo-matrix”) dominate in some parts of the void space, they may show the properties of type 2 reservoirs forming a mixed type of fractured reservoirs.
A study was made of changes in the physicochemical properties and occurrence conditions of oils depending on the depth, which made it possible to clarify the quantitative patterns of changes in the physico-chemical properties of oils at different depths and to reveal features of the properties of poorly studied deep-seated oils. The studies used information on more than 21000 oil samples from 167 oil-bearing basins of the world, obtained from the database on the physico-chemical properties of oils. It has been shown that in different oil-bearing basins the density and viscosity of oils decreases with depth. The content of sulfur, resins and asphaltenes also decreases with depth, and the content of light fractions and oil gas increases. The features of the physico-chemical properties of deep-seated oils have been established, which are manifested in a decrease in the density and viscosity of oils, in a decrease in the content of sulfur and asphalt-resinous substances, and in an increase in the content of light fractions and oil gas. The results of geological modeling of changes in the stress state of rocks associated with the displacement of the foundation blocks due to tectonic processes are considered.
It has been shown that at the edges of the downing tectonic blocks at the boundary of the sedimentary cover and the basement, zones of minimum pressure (decompression zones) are formed. The lightest hydrocarbons migrate along the faults into the decompression zones, forming deep-seated hydrocarbon deposits, what can serve as a justification for the features of the properties of deep-seated oils established in the work.
The article examines the problem of processing microseismic noise (MN) to identify and evaluate occurrence depth of contrasting geological objects – intersalt interlayers with a potentially high formation pressure. If it is impossible to use artificial wave sources, statistic processing of passive seismic data becomes critical. Due to the accumulation of power spectral density (PSD) during a long-term recording of MN the deterministic medium effect on a random signal spectrum is identified. PSD modulation when the surface or the bottom of the layered medium is exposed to white noise is expressed in terms of the Green’s function (GF) of a wave equation. Relevant GF variations corresponding to the layers form the basis for accumulated PSD approximation, and indicate the depth and contrast of the target features.
Paleontological remains from the Bazhenovo Horizon of Western Siberia (Tithonian–Berriasian) are represented by macro- and microfossils. The Horizon had a marine genesis and the basis of ecosystem of this paleobasin composed of pelagic organisms-producers (phytoplankton: prasinophytes, coccolithophorids, dinoflagellates, as well as brown algae) and consumers (zooplankton: radiolarians, invertebrate larvae, crustaceans; and nekton: pelagic bony fish, ammonites, belemnites, paleosquids-teutids and marine dinosaurs; and, in addition, benthic bivalves, foraminifera, and ostracods). Among microfossils, radiolarians are the leading importance, phytoplankton (dinoflagellates, coccolithophorids) and microbenthos (foraminifera, sponge spicules) are less common. Radiolarians, dinoflagellates, coccolithophorids, and foraminifera are used for biostratigraphic subdividing of sections and their correlation, and, in addition, together with sponge spicules, for reconstruction the paleoenvironments. In literature, a several paper indicated the presence of other siliceous microfossils in paleobiota of the Bazhenovo paleosea – diatoms, silicoflagellates, and acantharians. The article summarized data on radiolaria, coccolithophorids, dinophyta and critically reviewed reports of other microobjects. It is shown that the information about diatoms, silicoflagellates and acantharians from Bazhenovo Horizon and Bazhenovo Formation is probably unreliable.
The paper presents the results of a complex joint Russian-Vietnamese geological, geophysical and oceanographic expedition in the South-China Sea (R/V “Akademik M.A. Lavrentyev”, cruise 88, 2019), as well as related joint RussianVietnamese marine and land researches in the area of north and south Vietnam under a series of local FEB RAS – VAST grants. The organizers of the marine expedition are the V. I. Ilyichev Pacific Oceanological Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (POI FEB RAS) and the Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics of the Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology (IMGG VAST). In comparison with the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk, it can be noted that the active bottom degassing on the on the Vietnamese shelf and slope have is a local, although the intensity of gas-geochemical anomalies is comparable to similar zones in the Far Eastern Seas. For the first time, anomalous methane fields (up to 5000 nl/l) were found in the water column of the SouthChina Sea, which are comparable to anomalies on the oil and gas shelf and the gas-hydrate-bearing slope of Sakhalin Island.
Metamorphosed sedimentary and volcanic rocks were discovered for the first time in the southern part of Catba Island (Gulf of Tonkin), which indicates the introduction of an endogenous body into the sedimentary strata and its further transformation. In connection with the discovery in 2020 of the large Ken Bau gas field at the southern end of the sedimentary basin of the Red River, the forecast of POI scientists about the presence of significant hydrocarbon reserves in this area was confirmed.
The work was carried out within the framework of the joint Vietnam-Russia Laboratory for Marine Sciences and Technology (V. I. Ilyichev Pacific Oceanological Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology). The expedition of the R/V “Akademik M.A. Lavrentyev” (cruise 88) is part of a series of expeditions in accordance with the UN Decade dedicated to the Ocean Science for Sustainable Development.
PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MINERAL RESOURCES
Chromium is a strategic metal, but more than a half of Russia’s needs are met by imports, so new deposits of chromites, including unconventional placer deposits, are of industrial and scientific interest. Previous studies and current works of the authors of the article have established the chromite placer metal content of Permian-Jurassic deposits of the Volga-Ural basin, which has industrial and potential significance: within the Lukoyanovsky placer area (Nizhny Novgorod region), the industrial chromite content of Jurassic coastal-marine titanium-zirconium placers has been established; in the south-west of Bashkiria, chromite-bearing sands (Sabantuy occurrence) with increased contents, but not yet clear industrial potential. The study of the typomorphism of chromites indicate their close relationship with the chrome spinel of ophiolite associations. The assumed overthrust structure of chromite-bearing hyperbasites of the Urals suggests a wide distribution of chromite-bearing sands within the Upper Permian-Jurassic Volga-Ural paleobasin, in which the increased content of chromites was controlled by hydroand lithodynamic conditions favorable for placer formation. Questions of the genesis of chromite placer occurrences in the Ural part of the East European Platform, their distribution and primary sources need further study.
The long-term stored tailings of the ore concentration of pyrite-polymetallic ore deposits are an ideal natural laboratory in which it is possible to study the gold transformation from primary ores to supergene with superimposed anthropogenic characteristics. The typomorphic characteristics of native gold are studied on the example of technogenic-mineral formations (TMF) of the Novo-Ursk, Belokluch and Zmeinogorsk deposits (Western Siberia). The grain size distribution of gold and its concentration, morphology, internal structure and chemical composition shows the features of gold conversion in the processes of dissolution, migration and secondary deposition at geochemical barriers.
As a result of a typomorphic analysis, external and internal signs were identified that prove that gold underwent supergene transformations directly in the body of the technogenic tailings. The growths and accumulations of nano- and microsize gold, the formation of particles of aggregate structure, lamination, fine particles and veinlets, openwork edges, as well as the absence of physical damage on the surface of the golds, confirm the active mobility of gold at the scales of tailings and emphasize the complex nature of multi-stage processes of gold mobilization.
The gold formation of different chemical composition in TMF is explained by specific physical and chemical conditions for the section of the mound of stored waste, different sources of primary gold and geochemical barriers. Au(S2 O3 )n (1-2n) and Au(HS)2 – are the main complexes responsible for the mobility of gold. Gold of low and medium fineness is formed from thiosulfate complexes, whereas high-fineness gold is formed from hydrosulfide complexes.
Carbon Matter (Discussion)
On the basis of an inorganic concept of the petroleum origin, the phase relationships of crystalline kerogens of black shales and liquid oil at the physicochemical conditions of a typical geobarotherm on the Texas Gulf Coast are considered. At the conditions of the carbon dioxide (CO2) high fluid pressure, the process of oil transformation into kerogens of varying degrees of “maturity” (retrograde metamorphism) takes place with decreasing temperature and hydrogen pressure. Kerogen generation in black shale rocks occurs by the sequential transition through metastable equilibria of liquid oil and crystalline kerogens (phase “freezing” of oil). The upward migration of hydrocarbons (HC) of oil fluids, clearly recorded in the processes of oil deposit replenishment in oil fields, shifts the oil ↔ kerogen equilibrium towards the formation of kerogen. In addition, with decreasing of the hydrogen chemical potential as a result of the process of high-temperature carboxylation and low-temperature hydration of oil hydrocarbons, the “mature” and “immature” kerogens are formed, respectively.
The phase relationships of crystalline black shale kerogens and liquid oil under hypothetical conditions of high fluid pressure of the HC generated in the regime of geodynamic compression of silicate shells of the Earth in the result of the deep alkaline magmatism development. It is substantiated that a falling of hydrogen pressure in rising HC fluids will lead to the transformation of fluid hydrocarbons into liquid oil, and as the HC fluids rise to the surface, the HC ↔oil ↔ kerogen equilibrium will shift towards the formation of oil and kerogen.
It is round that both in the geodynamic regime of compression and in the regime of expansion of the mantle and crust, carboxylation and hydration are the main geochemical pathways for the transformation of oil hydrocarbons into kerogen and, therefore, the most powerful geological mechanism for the black shale formations.
ISSN 1608-5078 (Online)